jackpotworld| Everbright Futures: May 13 Agricultural Products Daily

Oil and fat oilJackpotworldReport bad, cash in, buy meal, sell oil, arbitrage hold

1. This week, the oil and oil market split up, the price of American beans and protein meal rose, the price of soybean meal reached a new high for nearly half a year, the price of oil fell, and the soybean brown was weak.

2. In terms of subject matter, the USDA May supply and demand report was released at 00 o'clock on Saturday. It is expected that the supply of American beans and global oil will be loose in the year 24, which will continue to accumulate stocks substantially. USDA estimates that the output of Meidou 24max in 25 will be 44.JackpotworldThe final inventory was 445 million PS, slightly higher than market expectations; global soybean production, crushing and exports all increased, and the final inventory increased by 16.7 million tons to 128.5 million tons, a record high. Among them, Brazil, Argentina, the United States and China have the greatest upward pressure on inventories. Argentina soybean production maintained its forecast in 2023 to 24, Brazil soybean production was reduced by 1 million tons, and South American soybean production was lower than expected. The report is too short, which is not conducive to the forward price of oil. In terms of logistics in Brazil, rain continues in Rio Grande do Sul, production losses remain to be observed, and Bonji said port activities have been suspended. A nationwide strike in Argentina has shut down grain ports and crushers. That means less short-term supply pressure, boosting prices in recent months. Considering that the near-end factors are greater than the far-end, the price of American beans is expected to be strong next week, focusing on South American logistics, exports of American beans, sowing of new crops, and so on. The spot supply pressure of domestic protein meal is basically reflected in the basis market, and there is not much space below, so we should choose the opportunity to participate in it during the month, and buy meal and sell oil arbitrage.

3. In terms of oils and fats, USDA predicted in May that global oil production and consumption would increase in May, with stocks declining for the second year in a row. In terms of varieties, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil and sunflower oil decreased in varying degrees. The lack of oil production but the strong domestic consumption is the main reason for the removal of oil storage. Horse palm oil production rose 7.86 per cent month-on-month to 1.5 million tonnes in April, exports fell 6.97 per cent to 1.23 million tonnes and ending inventories rose 1.85 per cent month-on-month to 1.74 million tonnes, according to the MPOB4 monthly report. Shipping data show that horse palm oil exports fell 14.2% month-on-month from May 1 to 10, reflecting the reduction of international soybean palm upside down but still failed to reverse the weak export situation. Palm oil producing area accumulates the stock cycle, and the price is under pressure. Domestic oil stocks rose, after the release of post-holiday replenishment demand, transactions slowed down. Oil unilateral concussion train of thought, palm oil monthly set of ideas.

Egg: long-short game, the main contract fluctuates greatly

1. The position of egg futures is at the highest level in the same period in history, and the main contract fluctuates greatly because of the long-short game. Before the May Day holiday, the egg main contract rebounded after the pullback. This Tuesday, the egg main force 2409 contract rebounded, fluctuated sharply on Wednesday, and then fluctuated. In recent months, the contract continued to rebound after the holiday, with the limit rising at the end of the day in June and July, and the limit hit again in the 2407 contract on Wednesday.

2. Most of the former businessmen lacked confidence in the market after May Day, generally maintained low inventory, concentrated replenishment downstream after the festival, the market demand improved for a short time, coupled with the inventory at a low level, the supply of goods in the production areas was tight, and the price of eggs went up. According to the statistics of Zhuochuang sample site, on May 10, the average daily price of brown shell eggs in China was 3.57 yuan / jin, up 0.26 yuan / jin compared with that before the festival.

3. The statistics of Zhuochuang sample point showed that in April, the laying hens continued to increase in the stock column, and the chicken age structure was younger, the laying rate continued to increase, and the short-term egg supply was abundant. In April, the amount of fillings for raising chicks increased month-on-month and decreased slightly compared with the same period last year, and the monthly amount of mending was still at a relatively high level in the same period of history. According to the law of normal growth cycle, the supply of eggs will continue to increase in the future. In the short term, the rainy season is not conducive to egg storage, or will have a negative impact on demand.

This week, the long-short game, futures prices fluctuated sharply, near the weekend, some stability. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see, short-term band operation, waiting for the future medium-and long-term operation opportunities, pay attention to the spot price of eggs and changes in market sentiment.

Corn: report Lidomeimei, corn rising, domestic corn price range rising

Outer disk: USDA reported bullish in May, and US corn rose after the report. Because USDA's forecast of US corn ending inventory is lower than industry expectations, after the report, the market is worried that the sowing schedule in the Midwest will be delayed due to the weather, which will cause the US corn ending inventory to be lower than the industry expected level. According to the data, the end-of-term inventory of corn in 24x25 is estimated to be 2.102 billion cattails, lower than the previous analyst estimate of 2.284 billion cattails. In addition, wheat futures rose sharply on Friday as frost affected Russian wheat-producing areas, and Russian authorities said farmers suffering from frost would reseed.

Domestic: the national corn price rose slightly this week. As of May 9, the weekly average price of corn was 2333 yuan / ton, up 2 yuan / ton from last week. Northeast production area purchase and sales stalemate, deep processing enterprises overhaul increased, and the arrival of contract grain, feed enterprises to maintain safety inventory, demand has not been significantly boosted. Corn prices in North China rose rapidly during the May Day holiday and maintained a narrow adjustment after the holidays. with the reduction of surplus grain and the improvement of market mentality, the supply pressure of traders before the wheat harvest in June was significantly weakened. The coastal area and the area along the river are pulled up by the futures market, and the quotation sentiment of traders is enhanced, which increases by an average of 40-50 yuan / ton during the week, but the higher the price is, the lower the price is, and there is more room for negotiation.

Futures: this week, corn prices rose, and the price center of gravity moved higher than before the festival. From the point of view of the mentality of buying and selling in the spot market, the mentality of traders in the corn market is greatly affected by futures fluctuations, and people continue to pay attention to the opportunities for the northeast to flow into North China after the pressure of corn sales in North China, which also provides conditions for later traders to raise prices and sell grain. On Monday, DCE corn and starch are expected to rise due to the rise of Meimai and corn. From May to June, the domestic grain market pays attention to the impact of the listing of new wheat and the adjustment of Chen wheat policy in the wheat market on prices, the futures operation maintains a long line of thinking, and arbitrage continues to pay attention to the trading opportunities of 9-1 positive hedging spreads.

Live pigs: futures prices lead to rise, spot prices rise first and then fall

1. This week, domestic spot pig prices first rose and then fell, with overall narrow fluctuations. There is still pro-price sentiment in some areas, it is difficult to receive goods downstream, and the pig price is strong in the first half of the week. In the second half of the week, the rhythm of the farmed end returned to normal, and the supply of pigs in the market was gradually abundant, but the strength of receiving goods downstream was limited, and pig prices stopped rising and falling. Zhuochuang data show that on May 9, the average price of live pigs across the country was 15 yuan / kg, the same as last week. The average price of the benchmark delivery land in Henan is 14.98 yuan / kg, which is 0.2 yuan / kg higher than that before the festival.

2. Due to the recent downturn in pork consumption, it is difficult for the pig market to improve significantly in the short term, and the willingness to supplement the fence at the breeding end tends to be cautious. At the same time, the secondary fattening behavior is gradually rising, which is not conducive to the piglet market transaction, the piglet high price transaction is difficult, the trading activity is reduced, and the price shock is weak. Zhuochuang statistics show that on May 9, the average price of piglets was 572 yuan per piglet, which was the same as before the festival.

3. Pig trading in all regions has fallen and risen, and increased slightly as a whole. At the breeding end, there is a sentiment of pressing the fence and waiting for the price of pigs to rise in the future, and it is more difficult for butcher enterprises to acquire the supply of standard pigs, and instead to buy some large-weight sources of goods, leading to a rise in pig transactions. On May 9th, Zhuochuang sample site counted the pig weight of 124.01 kg per pig, which was 0.18kg more than that of last week.

4. At the beginning of the month, there are few pig sources in Dachang, the supply side of the market is tight, and pig prices rise slightly. The breeding cost is basically stable during the week. The profit of self-breeding theory and piglet fattening theory increased compared with the week before the festival. Wind statistics show that on May 10th, the profit of self-breeding and self-breeding was-43 yuan per pig and 96 yuan per piglet purchased.

5. According to the statistics of Zhuochuang sample site, as of May 10, the opening rate of slaughtering enterprises in the sample site was 29.57%, which was 1.93 percentage points lower than that before the festival. After the May Day holiday, the downstream stock decreased, the superimposed temperature increased, the terminal pork demand was suppressed, and the slaughtering rate was lower than that before the festival.

6. This week, pig weighted contracts held 167000 positions, an increase of 32000 positions compared with the end of April. Positions increased and pig prices resumed upward. After May Day, pig futures continued the upward trend, the theoretical volume down boosted market confidence, pig prices warmed up and long funds entered the market with a warming boost.

7. After entering May, the consumer market continues to observe whether the consumer's expectation of boosting the pig market can be fulfilled. Judging from the current performance of pig prices, futures prices led the rise, spot prices stopped rising and fell after May Day, and the basis was weaker. Technically, the 60-day moving average of the pig September contract forms a support for pig prices, the short-term operation pays attention to the supporting role of the moving average system, and the long-term bulls who keep positions before the festival can continue to hold.

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