realmollybloom| Everbright Futures: May 21 Energy and Chemical Daily

Crude oil:

On Monday, SC2407, the main contract for crude oil, closed up 0%.Realmollybloom.21%, at 619.6 yuan per barrel. Recently, oil prices are mainly affected by macro factors, and the downward adjustment of the growth rate of global crude oil demand by the three major institutions this year reflects a shift in expectations of the crude oil market. However, in the short term, the peak season for overseas gasoline consumption is approaching, and the American Automobile Association expects the number of travelers during the Memorial Day holiday next week to reach the highest level in nearly two decades. and seeing that the price gap between the cracking prices of overseas oil products and the apparent demand for oil products in the United States have rebounded, it is expected that short-term oil prices may stabilize and pick up against the backdrop of a marginal rebound in demand.

Fuel oil:

On Monday, FU2409, the main contract for fuel oil in the previous issue, closed up 1.28% at 3486 yuan / ton, while LU2408, the main contract for low-sulfur fuel oil, closed up 0.51% at 4300 yuan / ton. From a fundamental point of view, the market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil tends to be strong, and the market of high-sulfur fuel oil is still supported. In terms of high sulfur, supply is beginning to gradually shrink, while summer power generation demand in South Asian countries will provide some support for the future fundamentals of high-sulfur fuel oil. thereforeRealmollybloomWe also see that the recent trend of high sulfur in the inner and outer market is relatively stronger than that of low sulfur, especially the price difference between high and low sulfur in the inner disk continues to narrow. It is expected that in the short term, with the support of the supply and demand side, this situation of high sulfur is stronger than low sulfur will continue, and the price difference between high and low sulfur will remain low.

Asphalt:

On Monday, BU2409, the main contract for asphalt, closed up 0.46% at 3716 yuan / ton. Despite recent news from the market that the United States may extend some companies' oil business licenses in Venezuela, the diluted asphalt discount has remained stable in recent months, and the rebound in supply is not obvious at present, but it is expected that some refineries will return to production capacity next month, which may bring some supply pressure. On the demand side, there have been signs of a marginal rebound in terminal demand recently, but it is still weak compared with the same period last year. It is expected that the short-term asphalt panel price is still dominated by interval shocks, paying attention to the degree of incremental cashing at both ends of supply and demand.

Rubber:

On Monday, as of the close of trading on Monday, RU2409, the main force of Shanghai rubber, rose 180 yuan / ton to 14865 yuan / ton, NR rose 120 yuan / ton to 12335 yuan / ton, and butadiene rubber BR rose 220 yuan / ton to 13735 yuan / ton. Yesterday, Shanghai whole latex 14100 (+ 150), whole milk-RU2409 spread-675 (+ 60), RMB mixed 13750 (+ 100), mixed-RU2409 spread-1025 (+ 10), BR9000 Qilu spot 13400 (+ 0), BR9000-BR main force-185115). The ANRPC report forecasts that global production of celestial glue is expected to rise 2.9 per cent to 747000 tonnes in April, down 5 per cent from the previous month, while consumption is expected to rise 2.5 per cent to 1.283 million tonnes, down 8.4 per cent from the previous month. Precipitation interference occurs again in domestic and foreign producing areas, there is heavy rainfall in Yunnan and Hainan producing areas, the raw material prices in producing areas are stronger, and the cost support is strong. The resumption of work by downstream tire manufacturers and the introduction of real estate policies are also conducive to pulling heavy truck demand, supporting all-steel tires, rubber continues to go to the warehouse, and rubber prices are on the strong side. Pay attention to domestic inventory expectations and EUDR progress.

Polyester:

TA409 closed yesterday at 5926 yuan / ton, up 1.16%; the spot offer rose 09 yuan / ton to about 14 yuan / ton. EG2409 closed yesterday at 4552 yuan / ton, up 0.75%, the basis increased by 9 yuan / ton to-35 yuan / ton, spot quotation 4520 yuan / ton. The main contract of PX futures closed at 8540 yuan / ton, up 1.11%. The spot negotiation price is 1033 US dollars / ton, the RMB price is 8611 yuan / ton, and the base difference is narrowed 2 yuan / ton to 107 yuan / ton. A 300000-ton / year ethylene glycol plant from syngas in Shaanxi was released around the weekend, and the load is gradually increasing. The device had been stopped for overhaul late last month. A 1.25 million ton PTA unit in South China is stopped for some reason and is expected to be overhauled for 4 days. A 2.5 million-ton PTA plant in East China is in preparation for restart, which is stopped for maintenance. It is reported that a 4.5 million-ton PTA plant in South China has dropped to about 50% in the near future, and 80% of the plant has been in operation in the early stage. Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester production and sales of local volume, the average production and marketing is estimated at 130-140%. As of May 20, the inventory of MEG port in the main port area of East China was about 791000 tons, an increase of 22000 tons compared with the previous period. Cost-side crude oil prices rebounded, Daxie petrochemical PX maintenance cancelled, but Zhejiang Sinopec 2.5 million tons of unexpected stop, downstream TA maintenance devices have been restored, PX prices are strong support. The demand for TA is weak and dragged, but the centralized overhaul of TA improves the supply and demand structure of TA, and the removal of inventory in May is considerable. From the point of view of ethylene glycol, the overall start-up of ethylene glycol is negative, the starting load of downstream polyester is reduced, and the short-term ethylene glycol shock is expected.

Methanol:

On Monday, Taicang spot prices were 3000 yuan / ton, Inner Mongolia North Line prices were 2325 yuan / ton, CFR China prices were 310-315 U.S. dollars / ton, and CFR Southeast Asian prices were 360-365 U.S. dollars / ton. Downstream, the price of formaldehyde in Shandong is 1200 yuan / ton, the price of acetic acid in Jiangsu is 3200-3280 yuan / ton, and the price of MTBE in Shandong is 6850 yuan / ton. Short-term supply side is expected to increase, downstream demand is weaker, mainland inventory may still be under pressure, while the overall port inventory pressure is not great, total inventory is expected to accumulate slightly. Generally speaking, at present, the overall inventory level of methanol is low, and the basis difference is at a high level, superimposed macro expectations are strong, short-term methanol is still treated as strong, and the basis difference is expected to weaken.

Polypropylene:

On Monday, the mainstream of wire drawing in East China was 7680-7850 yuan / ton. In terms of profit, the gross profit of oil-based PP is-1064.05 yuan / ton; the gross profit of coal-based PP production is-164.67 yuan / ton; the gross profit of methanol-based PP production is-859 yuan / ton; the gross profit of propane dehydrogenation-PP production is-738.05 yuan / ton; and the gross profit of propylene-based PP production is 42.27 yuan / ton. Part of the preliminary maintenance equipment will resume production, the output is expected to increase, but the range should be small, downstream construction remains stable, although plastic weaving and pipe start is expected to change little, but injection molding may continue to recover, forming support for demand. Overall, the fundamentals are not obviously driven, the recent disk is more affected by methanol, it is expected that the short-term still around the cost of trading, the main contract shock is strong.

Polyethylene:

On Monday, the mainstream price of East China HDPE spot market was 8550 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan / ton from the previous working day; the mainstream price of East China LDPE was 9900 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton compared with the previous working day; the mainstream price of North China LLDPE market was 8550 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan / ton compared with the previous working day; polyethylene futures closed at 8649 yuan / ton, 14 yuan / ton higher than the previous working day. In terms of profit, the gross profit of oil polyethylene market is-481 yuan / ton, and that of coal polyethylene market is 1444 yuan / ton. Production is expected to increase slightly, but compared with last year's supply pressure is not big, demand is still difficult to improve, agricultural film operating rate will continue to decline, downstream enterprises to rigid demand procurement, so upstream refineries and social inventory to slow down, comprehensive supply and demand weak pattern, polyethylene market is not obviously driven, short-term disk may be affected by macro sentiment and shock is strong, basis weakening.

Polyvinyl chloride:

On Monday, the market price of PVC in East China continued to rise, calcium carbide type 5 material 6030-6100 yuan / ton, ethylene mainstream reference 6100-6250 yuan / ton; North China PVC market price continued to rise, calcium carbide type 5 mainstream reference 5850-5930 yuan / ton, ethylene mainstream reference 6080-6320 yuan / ton South China PVC market prices continue to rise, calcium carbide type 5 mainstream reference 6100-6160 yuan / ton, ethylene mainstream quotation in 6150-6250 yuan / ton. Futures closed at 6383 yuan per ton, up 128 yuan per ton. Generally speaking, the current valuation level of PVC is not high, and the main contract is far away from the delivery time, the logic of basis regression will not become the main line of trading in the short term, and the market will pick up the demand for trading and repair the valuation, so it is expected that the short-term shock of the main contract of PVC is still strong and the basis is weak.

Urea:

Urea futures prices on Monday first suppressed and then rose, weak shock in the morning, rapid pull in the afternoon, as of the closing of the main 09 contract at 2237 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.24%. The spot market fell further, with market prices falling by 20,40 yuan / ton in most mainstream areas and 70 yuan / ton in some areas. At present, the market price in Linyi, Shandong Province is 2360 yuan / ton, which is 20 yuan / ton lower than that of the previous working day. From the supply point of view, the current daily output of the urea industry is 171900 tons, and the industry supply may increase in the later period under the expectation of the resumption of production by the maintenance enterprises, but the safety production accident of a factory in Shanxi has once again disturbed the supply side. The demand side brings downstream resistance due to high prices, coupled with the fact that China has gradually entered the busy season of wheat harvest and the peak season of compound fertilizer production is coming to an end, and the activity of the urea market will decline further in the later stage. Driven by the strong trend of commodity markets and urea futures prices, urea plant orders increased rapidly yesterday afternoon and stopped selling again after some of them were full. On the whole, the trend of the short-term urea futures market is mainly strong. In view of the fact that the fundamentals are expected to weaken in the later stage and the domestic agricultural materials are still dominated by ensuring supply and stable prices, we can consider the strategy of selling short at high prices and guard against the continuous improvement of macro sentiment and the disturbance of changes in the international market.

Soda ash:

Soda ash futures prices continued a strong upward trend on Monday, with the main 09 contract closing at 2382 yuan / ton, up 6.53%. The spot market is mainly up-regulated, and the ex-factory price of heavy alkali in large domestic natural alkali plants has been raised by 100 yuan / ton. Traders' quotations also increased significantly with the rise of market sentiment, with heavy alkali delivery prices in North and East China rising to 2300 yuan / ton and 2230 yuan / ton respectively. From a fundamental point of view, the daily operating rate of the soda industry fluctuates around 85.92%, and caustic soda plant inventories continued to fall 2.16% on Monday compared with last Thursday. Soda ash market sentiment is higher, the focus of trading has also moved up, but the actual demand fluctuation range is limited. On the whole, the current market sentiment in the short-term soda ash period is relatively positive, and the price is expected to continue to be strong in the future, so we need to guard against the resistance to high prices in the middle and lower reaches, the impact of imported soda ash and other risk factors.

Glass:

On Monday, the price of glass futures was strong and volatile, with the main contract closing at 1638 yuan per ton, up 1.3%. The spot market has weakened since the weekend, and the average price of domestic float glass fell back to 1681 yuan / ton yesterday. Sales in Shahe market are flexible, the spot production and sales rate has increased to 115%, production and sales in other areas are weak, and parts of southern China are still affected by heavy rainfall. Recently, the continuous increase of the real estate government has brought strong support to the glass futures market, but the spot sentiment has weakened and there is no substantial improvement in terminal demand, the upward space for glass futures prices may be relatively limited. It is suggested that we should treat it with strong shock thinking in the short term, and continue to pay attention to spot transactions and the recovery of terminal real estate demand.

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