gauntletarcade| The stock index fluctuated and fell: expectations for interest rate cuts cooled, the repair of A-share valuations was under pressure, and the implementation of real estate policies rebounded sharply

News summary

The stock index fluctuated and fell, affected by cooling expectations for overseas interest rate cuts and weakening domestic policy stimulus. Residents 'consumption and investment preferences are weak, the growth rate of social consumer retail sales declines, and the stock market lacks capital inflows. Under the support of policies, the stock index is expected to fluctuate in the short term, so it is recommended to hold stable and defensive attributes.gauntletarcadeStrategies related to the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange 300.

Newsletter text

[The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes showed a volatile decline today] Due to the dual impact of cooling overseas interest rate cuts expectations and easing of favorable domestic policies, the A-share market showed a trend of shrinking and consolidating.

The slow increase in residents 'income expectations has led to sluggish consumption and venture investment preferences, a decline in the growth rate of social consumer retail sales, a continued downturn in new shares of equity funds, and a lack of capital growth in the A-share market. The Federal Reserve has extended the maintenance period of high interest rates, focused on inflation resilience, further suppressed the valuation of non-US dollar risk assets, and put pressure on expectations of repairing A-share valuations.

Domestic real estate policies have been implemented favorably, there is limited room for policies to exceed expectations, and the economic demand side is stable but there is insufficient room for recovery. Although the policy is backed up, the possibility of large-scale stimulus is low. In the short term, the stock index is expected to maintain a range volatile trend.

[The SSE 50 and the CSI 300 have strong defensive attributes, and the strategic recommendation is to maintain a wide selling span] Based on the stable performance expectations of the SSE 50 and CSI 300 constituent stocks, which are highly defensive, and are unlikely to rise or fall in the short term, it is recommended that investors continue to hold relevant strategies.

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