tacklebox| Building Materials 1Q24 Performance Outlook: The off-season pressure replenishment market has arrived

It is predicted that the overall profit of the 1Q24 building materials plate is weak, but some of the track leaders are outstanding. We expect the overall profits or pressure of the 1Q24 building materials plate, but some of the track leading enterprises have strong α, and the profit performance is relatively eye-catching. Focus on cement: 1Q24 performance or pressure, the follow-up industry is still facing stress tests. The demand and prices of the 1Q24 industry as a whole continue the weak characteristics of 4Q23, and we expect most companies to still face a contraction in sales and a decline in earnings per ton. On April 10, the price of cement and clinker in the Yangtze River Delta increased by 30 yuan per ton, which we think reflectsTackleboxThe common demand of enterprises under low prices and meagre profits has supported market expectations in the short term; considering that May has gradually entered a relatively off-season, the continuity of this price increase is still unclear. If the industry prices in June-August can pass the stress test, 2H24 industry profits are expected to be revised up as a whole. Float glass: 1Q24 off-season tired library, the second quarter of the leading new business profit safety cushion role gradually reflected. We believe that post-holiday deep processing enterprises are subject to the impact of lower-than-expected real estate sales data, factory inventory continues to accumulate, and the average tax price of 1Q24 float is-3% to 1998 yuan / ton. However, the average price of soda ash on the cost side was also-14% to 2388 yuan / ton, and the net profit per box decreased slightly under the two-way influence. Entering the second quarter, we judged that driven by customer replenishment, the price of the original float may have rebounded; the new business mainly depends on photovoltaic glass, which has achieved a price increase in early April, from which the leading profit resilience is expected to show more advantages. Fiberglass: the average price of 1Q24 is still at the bottom, and the joint price increase of manufacturers in March has stimulated downstream replenishment. The price of fiberglass direct yarn rose in late March, which is mainly due to the fact that the price of fiberglass has reached an all-time low, a large area of losses in the industry, and the fact that it is difficult to clear production capacity. The joint price increase has stimulated the downstream to actively replenish the stock, with the month-on-month ratio of the glass fiber factory to-12% to 790000 tons at the end of March. At present, our judgment on the weak balance between supply and demand for the whole year remains unchanged, downstream processing enterprises maintain a low inventory level in the early stage, large-scale price increases have promoted downstream replenishment, and the glass fiber shipment rate is expected to improve marginally in the second quarter, and it is possible for some varieties to continue to raise prices. Consumer building materials: 1Q24 demand is still under pressure, the retail sector is more robust. Looking ahead to 1Q24, due to the lack of project funds, the start of real estate and infrastructure construction has been delayed, and the market demand at the engineering end is not good. We estimate that the income of the leading project end of consumer building materials may decline by about 0% and 10%. Retail sector, each leader to cost-effective products, expand channels and other ways to show "avatar", quickly increase the market share, the leader has a good income growth. In terms of profits, the project leader profits are under pressure from the same period last year, while the retail leader continues to improve. Valuation and recommendations in the short term we continue to draw attention to the categories that benefit from the logic of replenishment and price increase, including cement, photovoltaic glass and fiberglass. Cement suggests to pay attention to Conch cement, Huaxin cement, Shangfeng cement, Tabai Group (not covered), China Resources Building Materials Science and Technology; Glass Fiber suggests to pay attention to Chinese Stonehenge and medium material Technology, and Glass suggests to pay attention to Qibin Group. In the dimension of 3-6 months, we suggest that we should absorb large companies in small markets and go abroad to expand on bargains, and continue to recommend Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass, Beixin Building Materials and Huaxin cement. The recovery of risk demand is less than expected, the supply is slower than expected, and the competition in the industry intensifies. [disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.

[disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.

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