prizeslandbingo| Yunnan electrolytic aluminum enterprises gradually resume production of alumina is expected to be short in the medium and long term
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[variety point of view]
Supply sidePrizeslandbingoRecently, the progress of resuming production in the northern and southern regions is slow.PrizeslandbingoIt is expected that there is a downward trend in output in some areas, coupled with the decline in raw material supply capacity, insufficient automobile logistics capacity and the closure of import windows, the spot circulation of the market is tight in the short term, and the ore supply situation remains tight.
In terms of demand, at present, electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Yunnan are gradually resuming production. Generally speaking, Yunnan is in a dry period from May to June, and large-scale resumption can only be achieved after the arrival of the flood season. At present, there is some support for the demand side. Recently, the warehouse capacity for delivery in Xinjiang has been full, and the expansion of the basis has led to active current transactions, which makes the bullish sentiment more strong. In the short term, alumina is expected to shock strong operation, can be cautious to do long bargain. In the long run, due to the excess capacity of alumina, overproduction, while the capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry has certain restrictions, alumina is expected to be empty in the medium to long term.
In terms of inventory, as of April 26, 2024, alumina stocks in China's major ports decreased by 3% a week.Prizeslandbingo.70,000 tons to 26Prizeslandbingo.10,000 tons, the port inventory is slightly removed, which is lower than the average of the same period in the past five years, and the inventory is on the low side.
On the spot side, the spot price of negotiable national standard products is tight, the weighted average price of alumina in the north is 3476 yuan / ton, the daily change is 46 yuan / ton, the weighted average price of alumina in the south is 3548 yuan / ton, the daily change is 47 yuan / ton, and the average price of Australian alumina FOB is US $403 / ton, with a daily change of US $5 / ton.
In terms of capital, the main alumina contract holds more than 36892 hands, with a daily change of 2106 hands; the main contract short position is 39503 hands, with a daily change of 1622 hands; trading volume is 129432 hands, daily change-147552 hands.
[operation suggestion]
In the short term, alumina is expected to shock strong operation, can be cautious to do long bargain.
[favorable factors]
Electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan is expected to resume production gradually.
[negative factors]
In the long run, alumina production is excessive.
[risk factors]
The domestic ore supply is tight and shows a normal trend, so we should pay attention to the process of resuming production in Yunnan.
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