houseoffunrealmoney| The black system is weak and fluctuated in the short term: repair of demand for finished products and increased supply pressure coexist

Newsletter summary

The black market is expected to have no significant downward momentum in the short term.HouseoffunrealmoneyThere is room for repair after the holidays, but the issuance of special bonds is slow and the support of infrastructure demand is limited.

Text of news flash

[] the black market first suppressed and then rose today, and the driving force for a sharp decline in the short term is not obvious.

Today, the black market shows a trend of first suppressing and then rising, and the decline of finished wood prices has slowed down. After the May Day holiday, the demand for finished wood has been repaired to a certain extent, but it is still lower than the pre-festival level, indicating that there may be a small pick-up space next week. Although the resumption of blast furnace production will bring increased pressure on the supply side, the rate of inventory destocking is expected to slow down.

On the cost side, the price of hot metal rises seasonally and the inventory of iron ore at the raw material side begins to decrease, but the inventory level is still on the high side. The supply of double coke also showed a pick-up trend, while inventory turned to accumulation. Industry analysis points out that steel mills are in the process of resuming production, and the demand for finished products is expected to recover further, but due to the slow issuance of special bonds, infrastructure demandHouseoffunrealmoneyThe support is limited.

Taken into account, the finished wood market will follow the trend of the cost side in the short term, showing a weak shock pattern, and does not have a sharp decline in the short term. The marginal change of rebar fundamentals is better than that of rebar, so investors should consider gradually reducing their positions in short coils and paying attention to the elimination of finished stock.

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