nolimitpubpoker| White sugar: Starting from 2024, the price difference between the north and south regions will widen and the deposit may narrow in the second half of the year
Sun Yue, White Sugar Market analyst of Zhuochuang Information
[introduction] due to the loss of white sugar with additional imported processing in the past two yearsNolimitpubpokerThe price of domestic imported processed sugar is high, causing the price gap between the north and south regions to widen above the average. Taking into account the expected decline in international sugar prices in the second half of the year, as well as the peak of imports, the decline in processed sugar prices may expand, and the price gap between the north and south regions may narrow.
The price difference between the north and the south has widened above the average from 2024.
Liaoning and Shandong are the main producing areas of processed sugar. In addition to the normal supply of processed sugar in the local market, Guangxi sugar is generally sent to Liaoning by sea. The prices of Guangxi sugar and processed sugar influence each other. The price difference between Guangxi sugar and processed sugar began to expand in 2024. Taking Liaoning processed sugar as an example, as of May 17, the average price difference between them had reached 417 yuan / ton, an increase of 263 yuan / ton over the same period last year. At the same time, it is also higher than the average price difference of 198 yuan / ton in the past eight years. (note: price difference = Yingkou price-Nanning price, the average price difference is the average of the price difference in the past eight years)
Import loss outside quota the price of processed sugar remains high.
Imported raw sugar is the main raw material for the production of processed sugar, and import cost is the main factor affecting the pricing of processed sugar. In the past two years, the global sugar market has been in tight supply, and the high international sugar price has led to a rise in import costs. Import processing with an additional 50% tariff has been in a state of loss. Although international sugar prices have fallen from 24 cents / lb to less than 19 cents / lb since 2024 against the backdrop of Brazilian sugar yield expectations, non-quota import processing is still at a loss. At present, the theoretical loss of Brazilian raw sugar import processing outside the quota is less than 200 yuan / ton. Being in a state of loss for two consecutive years has led to a certain cost-end pressure on processed sugar mills. Compared with domestic sugar, the price decline of imported processed sugar is limited.
The advantage of Guangxi sugar selling in the north strengthens the price support
Generally speaking, the sea freight of Guangxi sugar to Shandong and Liaoning is 150-180 yuan per ton. due to the high price of processed sugar this year, the price of Guangxi sugar to the north plus Shanghai freight is also far lower than that of local processed sugar, resulting in the price advantage of Guangxi sugar sold in the north. As of May 17, the market price of Guangxi Nanning is 6480-6570 yuan / ton, the price of Guangxi sugar in Liaoning port is 6730 yuan / ton, and the price of processed sugar in Liaoning market is 6830 yuan / ton, compared with the local selling price of Guangxi sugar and processed sugar in Liaoning province.
Through the monthly sugar sales data in Guangxi, we can see that after the new sugar was put on the market in November 2023, the overall sugar sales in Guangxi was higher than that in the same period last year, and sales decreased in February due to the Spring Festival holiday. By the end of April, Guangxi had sold a total of 3.58 million tons of sugar in 2023, an increase of 18% over the same period last year.Nolimitpubpoker.54%; sugar sales rate 57.93%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points over the same period last year. Guangxi sugar north sales advantage appears, the sales progress is faster than the same period last year, and the price support is strengthened. As of May 17, the market price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6530 yuan / ton, up 60 yuan / ton from the beginning of 2024; the market price of processed sugar in Liaoning was 6830 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton from the beginning of 2024.
The decline in import costs superimposed import increment is expected to narrow the price gap between the north and south regions in the second half of the year.
From the perspective of the international market, the progress of sugar production in Brazil will speed up in May, and it will be in the peak period from June to September, the volume of foreign exports will also increase, and the trade flow in the international market will tend to be relaxed; in the fourth quarter, India and Thailand will also start new crushing season production, and sugarcane purchase prices in India and Thailand will be raised in 2024, which is beneficial to the increase in sugarcane acreage. It is expected that there will be high yield expectations for sugar production in India and Thailand in 2024. On the whole, the supply side of the international sugar market is empty in the second half of the year, and there may be room for the international sugar price to continue to decline. From the perspective of the domestic market, domestic sugar factories have been in the stage of destocking before the start of the new crushing season in October. At present, the sales progress of sugar factories is relatively good. With the continuous consumption of inventory, sugar factories will have a certain price-raising mentality. In addition, the demand for stock preparation for the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day in the third quarter is reflected in advance, or supports sugar prices to a certain extent.
On the whole, the supply side of the domestic white sugar market is slightly better than the international market, even if the international sugar price falls bad for the domestic, but the domestic sugar price with the decline may be limited. In view of the strong expected decline in international sugar prices in the second half of the year, the import window outside the quota may open, the import peak will be in the second half of the year, the raw material arrival volume of processed sugar mills will increase, and the price decline of domestic processed sugar is expected to widen, and the price gap between the north and south regions may narrow. If the price difference between the two is narrowed below the average line, the arrival cost price of Guangxi sugar sold in the north will be basically the same as the price of local processed sugar, and the price advantage of Guangxi sugar will be weakened, or it may lead to a slowdown in the pace of sugar sales in Guangxi, which will have a certain short impact on the price of Guangxi sugar.
Tags:
Prev: haktutsspincoinmaster| Xingzheng International subsidiaries were allocated to subscribe for ICBC notes totaling US$10 million
Next: pennfierceiiispinningreel6000| The Federal Reserve enters the window for interest rate cuts: the probability of gold price rising has increased significantly